Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition

The consequences of climate change, nature loss, and other changes to the Earth system will impact societies' ability to tackle the causes of these problems. There are extensive agendas of study and action on the risks resulting from changes in the Earth system. These consider the failure to realise rapid sustainability transitions to date (“physical risk”) and the risks resulting from these transitions going forward (“transition risk”). Yet there is no established agenda on the risks to sustainability transitions from both physical and transition risks and their knock-on consequences. In response, we develop a conceptual socio-ecological systems model that explores how the escalating consequences of changes in the Earth system impacts the ability of societies to undertake work on environmental action that, in turn, re-stabilises natural systems. On one hand, these consequences can spur processes of political, economic, and social change that could accelerate the growth in work done, as societies respond constructively to tackle the causes of a less stable world. Conversely, escalating demands to manage increasingly chaotic conditions could divert work and political support from environmental action, deepening changes in the Earth system. If the latter dynamic dominates over the former, the chance is increased of passing a planetary threshold over which human agency to re-stabilise the natural world is severely impaired. We term this “derailment risk”: the risk that the journey to bring the world back into a safe operating space is derailed by interacting biophysical and socio-economic factors. We use a case study of a climate tipping element – the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – to illustrate derailment risk. A range of policy responses can identify and mitigate derailment risk, including transformational adaptation. Acting on derailment risk is a critical requirement for accelerating the re-stabilisation of Earth system elements and avoiding catastrophic outcomes.</p

Greenland Ice Sheet exports labile organic carbon to the Arctic oceans

Runoff from small glacier systems contains dissolved organic carbon (DOC) rich in protein-like, low molecular weight (LMW) compounds, designating glaciers as an important source of bioavailable carbon for downstream heterotrophic activity. Fluxes of DOC and particulate organic carbon (POC) exported from large Greenland catchments, however, remain unquantified, despite the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) being the largest source of global glacial runoff (ca. 400 km3 yr−1). We report high and episodic fluxes of POC and DOC from a large (> 600 km2) GrIS catchment during contrasting melt seasons. POC dominates organic carbon (OC) export (70–89% on average), is sourced from the ice sheet bed, and contains a significant bioreactive component (9% carbohydrates). A major source of the “bioavailable” (free carbohydrate) LMW–DOC fraction is microbial activity on the ice sheet surface, with some further addition of LMW–DOC to meltwaters by biogeochemical processes at the ice sheet bed. The bioavailability of the exported DOC (26–53%) to downstream marine microorganisms is similar to that reported from other glacial watersheds. Annual fluxes of DOC and free carbohydrates during two melt seasons were similar, despite the approximately two-fold difference in runoff fluxes, suggesting production-limited DOC sources. POC fluxes were also insensitive to an increase in seasonal runoff volumes, indicating a supply limitation in suspended sediment in runoff. Scaled to the GrIS, the combined DOC (0.13–0.17 TgC yr−1 (±13 %)) and POC fluxes (mean = 0.36–1.52 TgC yr−1 (±14 %)) are of a similar order of magnitude to a large Arctic river system, and hence may represent an important OC source to the near-coastal North Atlantic, Greenland and Labrador seas

Revealing and concealing personal and social problems: family coping strategies and a new engagement with officials and welfare agencies c.1900-12

Researchers from many disciplines have identified new forms of health and welfare services emerging in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Attention has focused on the growth of direct provision by the local and national state, and new relationships between the statutory and voluntary sectors. The literature describes an important transition from the general workhouse to more specialist institutions, and the rise of community care. It also suggests that the increasing number of women employed by statutory and voluntary sector organizations forged new relationships with clients, but to date this research has been limited by a lack of sources and an emphasis on controlling practices. This new research on the work of female sanitary inspectors parallels this interpretation in the sense it was often intrusive, and certainly created new routes into institutional care. However, it also supports the idea that the inspectors were welcomed by some sections of the community and thereby made a distinctive contribution to the evolution of health and welfare services.Wellcome Trus

Long‐term trends in the distribution, abundance and impact of native “injurious” weeds

Questions: How can we quantify changes in the distribution and abundance of injurious weed species (Senecio jacobaea, Cirsium vulgare, Cirsium arvense, Rumex obtusifolius, Rumex crispus and Urtica dioica), over long time periods at wide geographical scales? What impact do these species have on plant communities? To what extent are changes driven by anthropogenically induced drivers such as disturbance, eutrophication and management? Location: Great Britain. Methods: Data from national surveys were used to assess changes in the frequency and abundance of selected weed species between 1978 and 2007. This involved novel method development to create indices of change, and to relate changes in distribution and abundance of these species to plant community diversity and inferred changes in resource availability, disturbance and management. Results: Three of the six weed species became more widespread in GB over this period and all of them increased in abundance (in grasslands, arable habitats, roadsides and streamsides). Patterns were complex and varied by landscape context and habitat type. For most of the species, there were negative relationships between abundance, total plant species richness, grassland, wetland and woodland indicators. Each individual species responds to a different combination of anthropogenic drivers but disturbance, fertility and livestock management significantly influenced most species. Conclusions: The increase in frequency and abundance of weeds over decades has implications for landscape‐scale plant diversity, fodder yield and livestock health. This includes reductions in plant species richness, loss of valuable habitat specialists and homogenisation of vegetation communities. Increasing land‐use intensity, excessive nutrient input, overgrazing, sward damage, poaching and bare ground in fields and undermanagement or too frequent cutting on linear features may have led to increases in weeds. These weeds do have conservation value so we are not advocating eradication, rather co‐existence, without dominance. Land management policy needs to adapt to benefit biodiversity and agricultural productivity

COP27 climate change conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world

No Abstrac

British Communists and the 1932 turn to the trade unions

The Comintern’s Third Period, 1928-1934, based on Stalin’s ‘second revolution’ in Russia, capitalist crisis and the claim that social democracy and fascism were twins, generated sectarian, ultra-left politics which proved inimical to Communist activity in trade unions. This article sheds new light on that issue by revisiting three connected episodes: the British party’s (CPGB) renewed turn to the unions, heralded in the January resolution of 1932; the roles Comintern staff and CPGB leader Harry Pollitt, played in this initiative; and the subsequent attempt by Pollitt to revise the politics of union work. This triptych reviews both primary sources and the recent historiography. It argues that some accounts have overestimated the novelty of the January resolution, blurred its meaning, and exaggerated Pollitt’s part in it. The resolution did not attempt to change the line but its application. Its impact was limited. Subsequent bids to go beyond it were muddled and unsuccessful. The 1933 move towards the united front, and the ensuing turn to the popular front, possessed more profound significance in the creation of an effective Communist presence in trade unions than the events of 1931- 1932